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Forbes Newsletter Watch
Traders' Rally? NEW YORK - Do these recent rallies beckon the beginning of a new bull leg? Not according to the top market-timing newsletters: They have been predicting this bounce off of the oversold conditions. Now they say the advance will soon stall and warn investors who try to trade the rally to exercise caution.
Timer Digest's top timer for the last year, James Dines, editor of the Dines Letter, shares Crawford's dim view of real estate, as well his long-term bearish outlook on equities. Dines has been calling for a summer rally since January, but he advises conservative investors to sit this one out. Dines would go bullish in the short term if the S&P 500 were to rally above 900, which it has so far failed to do. "We're certainly not bullish here yet. It's still a very dangerous market, and it's not for everybody. The problems are still out there," says Dines, who cites a developing currency crisis in South America, potential solvency problems for insurance companies and banks and the high probability of a U.S. war with Iraq. A bit more optimistic is Bill Meridian of Cycles Research. Meridian, an adherent of the Elliott Wave Theory, says it's likely that stocks have completed a wave down and now are in an upswing until the end of August. Meridian thinks this rally could propel the Dow back to as high as 9300 and the S&P 500 to 955. Leading the charge up should be large-cap stocks, says Meridian, in particular, blue-chips like IBM (nyse: IBM - news - people ), 3M (nyse: MMM - news - people ), United Technologies (nyse: UTX - news - people ), General Electric (nyse: GE - news - people ), Eastman Kodak (nyse: EK - news - people ) and DuPont (nyse: DD - news - people ). Michael Gibbons of Gibbons Trading also believes this rally is tradable, but tricky. Gibbons became a bull after the big move up on July 24. Gibbons looks for the S&P 500 to climb to 934, but then to "take out the low" of last week, which was 775. Nonetheless, Gibbons, who says he usually doesn't make short-term trades, bought names like Apple Computer (nasdaq: AAPL - news - people ), Ford Motor (nyse: F - news - people ), Intel (nasdaq: INTC - news - people ), Microsoft (nasdaq: MSFT - news - people ) and Texas Instruments (nyse: TXN - news - people ) to capitalize on the rally. Keep in mind Gibbons' risk profile: He used to be a futures trader. More Newsletter Watch Columns Send comments and questions to investingnewsletters@forbes.net. Learn more/subscribe to Forbes Newsletters.
Mutual Fund Survey 2002 - 8/29/02 6:30:00 PM ET Ratings for 1,033 funds, our Honor Roll and exclusive articles about mutual fund trends. Bristol's SEC Probe May Be Painful Cure - 8/29/02 4:48:59 PM ET A formal review of Bristol-Myers Squibb's accounting comes as investors wait for word on a new drug. InterMune Gets Around The FDA - 8/29/02 11:20:00 AM ET The biotech's stock rise highlights one area in drugmaking where the FDA has little control. WorldCom And The Mystery Of Buford Yates - 8/29/02 9:03:19 AM ET Wednesday's indictment of Scott Sullivan was no surprise. But who's his buddy Buford? America's Best-Dressed Billionaires - 8/26/02 12:00:00 PM ET Simon Doonan, Barneys New York's creative director, picks the five most stylish American billionaires.
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Market data provided by Reuters. Disclaimer Stock quotes are delayed at least 15 minutes for Nasdaq, at least 20 minutes for NYSE/AMEX. U.S. indexes are delayed at least 15 minutes with the exception of S&P; 500 which is real-time. Forbes 40 Index powered by Telemet. News may include latest headlines from Reuters. |
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